Wolf's Dragoons Intelligence Report

• Like all other powers, the appearance of Wolf's Dragoons caught 2nd RSAB Intelligence completely off guard
• Many theories put forth:
  • Return of Star League Regular Forces
  • Periphery group who found a Star League cache or the remains of the SLDF who met with an unfortunate end
  • A False Flag operation by ComStar or one of the Successor States in order to establish an independent intelligence gathering and operations force for possible long-term use to destabilize one or more of the Successor States.
• Return of SLDF was discounted primarily due to lack of Star League era weapons and lack of capital ships. The use of several Star League prototype designs (Imp, Annihilator) as well as Hephaestus station does raise questions about where they got their material
• The Periphery theory does not address the tactics and technical know-how. In addition, 2nd RSAB had reasonably reliable records about prototype units. The presence of Hephaestus station plus a lack of other Star League era designs tends to discount this theory. In addition, 2nd RSAB had reliable records regarding major SLDF caches in the periphery and had investigated most of them. None of the recorded cache's contents (at any point in their history) matched the Dragoons' unit composition. In addition, the supply runs made by the Dragoons were problematic given the amount of materials brought back with them and the potential range they could have covered.
• The False Flag theory was felt to be the most probable.
  • It was felt that ComStar was likely the culprit, using equipment stored on Terra.
  • The Jolly Roger Affair was thought to be an orchestrated diversion (given how ineptly it was carried out and the debacle it turned into) and the timing of it so close to the arrival of the Dragoons
  • 2nd RSAB had already penetrated ComStar and ROM but due to the insular nature of ROM and ComStar itself, it was not considered far-fetched that an operation could have been kept hidden. In addition, ComStar was neutral, or at least equally hostile, towards all of the Successor States.
  • ComStar was also known for taking the "long view" of operations and had the organizational patients to run a long-term mission of this type.
  • Other successor states as well as Periphery powers were generally discounted. If one or more of those powers had the stores of Battlemechs, or more importantly, the technical know-how, signs of it would have appeared elsewhere.
  • None of the other Successor State intelligence services showed any sign of cooperation or prior knowledge of the Dragoons. 2nd RSAB Intelligence had deeply penetrated all of the other intelligence services except for the Order of the Five Pillars, of which they had minor penetration.
  • The establishment of a seemingly independent intelligence service (Wolfnet) subsequent to the Dragoons' arrival was detected and seemed to confirm the False Flag theory. 2nd RSAB Intelligence detected the operation of Wolfnet several years prior to the other intelligence services.
• No direct attempts to penetrate Wolfnet or the Dragoons was made due to the risk of exposure of any 2nd RSAB operations in the Inner Sphere.
• After the 4th Succession War, 2nd RSAB Intelligence was still no closer to the origins of the Dragoons than when they arrived. The False Flag theory was still considered the most likely, with ComStar being the only faction capable of backing such an operation. Despite continued penetration of ROM and ComStar, no evidence was ever discovered to confirm any link.
• The SLDF theory remained, but again, there was no further information discovered that could confirm this theory.
• The lack of further supply runs tended to be seen as evidence that the SLDF and Periphery theories were less and less likely.
• 2nd RSAB Intelligence determined that there was a strong probability that Cranston Snord's Irregulars were tied to the Dragoons
• 2nd RSAB Intelligence also determined that Snord's Irregulars were likely scouting previously hidden (and generally unknown) Star League facilities. It was concluded that the unit had access to very high-level, pre-Exodus SLDF information.
• 2nd RSAB did not detect any attempts by Wolfnet to penetrate 2nd RSAB's intelligence network in the Inner Sphere and were generally confident that Wolfnet had no knowledge of the network.
• 2nd RSAB took special note of the Black Widow Training Battalion's composition in the battle for Hall in 3040. They continued to observe the unusual configuration of the unit after its return to Outreach.